ការពង្រឹងភាពធន់នៅប្រទេសកម្ពុជា៖ ចាប់ផ្ដើមពីចម្ងល់សេដ្ឋកិច្ច

សារគន្លឹះ

• អត្ថបទប្លុកនេះគឺជាអត្ថបទប្លុកទីមួយនៃកម្រងអត្ថបទប្លុកថ្មីដែលផ្តោតលើភាពធន់ និងប្រទេសកម្ពុជា។
• តាមនិយមន័យ ភាពធន់គឺជា «សមត្ថភាពនៃប្រព័ន្ធមួយដែលមានប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ ក្រុមហ៊ុន និងរដ្ឋាភិបាល ក្នុងការពារ និងត្រៀមខ្លួនដើម្បីឆ្លើយតប ទប់ទល់ និងស្តារឡើងវិញពីវិបត្តិផ្សេងៗ»។
• សេដ្ឋកិច្ចកម្ពុជាមានភាពងាយរងគ្រោះ ដោយសារការពឹងផ្អែកលើវិស័យឧស្សាហកម្មមួយចំនួនតូច ទីផ្សារសម្រាប់ការនាំចូល នាំចេញ និងប្រភពនៃការវិនិយោគទុនបរទេសផ្ដោតលើប្រទេសមួយចំនួនតូច ព្រមទាំងការប្រឈមនឹងគ្រោះទឹកជំនន់ និងការប្រែប្រួលអាកាសធាតុ។
• ភាពបើកចំហខ្លាំងនៃសេដ្ឋកិច្ចកម្ពុជា ធ្វើឱ្យប្រទេសងាយរងផលប៉ះពាល់ពីវិបត្តិសេដ្ឋកិច្ចពិភពលោក ខណៈកម្រិតជំនាញនិងការអប់រំនៅទាប អាចជួយកាត់បន្ថយវិបត្តិទាំងនេះបានតិចតួចបុណ្ណោះ។
• ផ្ទុយទៅវិញ កម្ពុជាមានអត្រានៃភាពក្រីក្របានធ្លាក់ចុះពី ៤០–៥០% នៅពាក់កណ្តាលទសវត្សរ៍ឆ្នាំ១៩៩០ មកនៅត្រឹមក្រោម ១៨% នៅត្រឹមឆ្នាំ២០១៩–២០២០ ហើយកំណើនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចបានងើបឡើងវិញយ៉ាងឆាប់រហ័ស បន្ទាប់ពីវិបត្តិធំៗនីមួយៗក្នុងអំឡុងបីទសវត្សរ៍ចុងក្រោយនេះ។
• អត្ថបទប្លុកនេះចោទជាចម្ងល់ថា តើសេដ្ឋកិច្ចកម្ពុជាមានភាពធន់នឹងវិបត្តិយ៉ាងដូចម្តេច ក្នុងអំឡុងបីទសវត្សរ៍ចុងក្រោយនេះ ខណៈកម្ពុជាមានកត្តាជាច្រើនដែលបង្ហាញពីភាពងាយរងផលប៉ះពាល់ផ្នែកសេដ្ឋកិច្ច?

Key Messages

• This blog is the first in a new series focused on resilience and Cambodia.
• Resilience is defined as “the ability of a system, including households, firms, and governments, to prevent and prepare for, cope with and recover from shocks.”
• The Cambodian economy is vulnerable when considered in terms of dependence on a narrow range of industries, geographically limited markets for imports, exports, and sources of foreign investment, and flood and climate change exposure.
• The striking openness of the Cambodian economy exposes the country to shocks from the global economy, while low level of skills and education provide minimal offsetting protection.
• Yet poverty fell from 40–50 percent in the mid-1990s to below 18 percent by 2019–2020, and economic growth has recovered quickly after every major shock of the past three decades.
• This blog asks, how has Cambodia proved to be so economically resilient over the last three decades when it has so many factors associated with economic vulnerability?

Introduction

Resilience has been defined by the World Trade Organization as “the ability of a system, including households, firms, and governments to prevent and prepare for, cope with and recover from shocks.” The concept of resilience has been applied across numerous fields including economics, physical and engineering sciences, geography, and ecology. Resilience is framed in reference to three key ideas, ‘shocks’, ‘vulnerability’, and ‘system resilience’.

Shocks (the first key idea) are wide ranging and may occur in relation to the environment (earthquakes, floods, climate change, and droughts), economic (financial and trade sanctions, oil price volatility, large-scale capital outflows, and exchange rate instability), political (demonstrations, strikes, change of leadership), technological (cyber-attacks, innovations), and many others.

We may study the impact of shocks at the national or global economy. For example, the September 11th 2001 attacks on the US are estimated to have cost USD500 billion to the national economy once the impacts on security and defence spending, tourism and travel revenues, and increased insurance and shipping costs were accounted for. We may also focus on firms and households. For example, the global food price spike in 2007–2008 threatened the world’s poorest households—those spending over 50 percent of their income on food—with malnutrition or starvation.

Vulnerability (the second key idea) is defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected by a shock.” For instance, the Mekong Floods in 2011 (discussed below) hit hardest among rain-fed farming households with little capacity to absorb the loss.

System resilience (the third key idea) examines whether economic, environmental, or other systems are able to absorb shocks, recover quickly, and protect the well-being or livelihoods of households, ecosystems, or firms in the interim. In those countries where the COVID-19 shock had induced widespread corporate bankruptcy, when lockdowns were lifted, the economy no longer had the capacity to rapidly boost output and employment. Or, referencing again to the global food price surge in 2007–2008, did countries have an effective mechanism to redistribute food or cash payments to protect poor households?

System resilience is a diverse concept and extends to behavioural psychology to ask whether an individual can regain psychological well-being after exposure to a stressful shock or may be permanently impaired by post-traumatic stress disorder. In politics, we can ask whether a temporary economic disruption is absorbed by debates, protests, or changes of democratic leadership (politics as normal) or results in more dramatic rupture, such as a military coup, martial law, or violent protest.

This blog is the first in a new series, focused on resilience in Cambodia and focuses here on an economic puzzle—looking at the second of those three key ideas and asking, how has Cambodia proved to be so economically resilient over the last three decades when it has so many factors associated with economic vulnerability?

This blog series builds on earlier research by CDRI, which examines resilience in relation to the environment, finance, health, and technology and argues that Cambodia needs to strengthen resilience to manage the risk of disruptions and help ensure the sustainability of rapid economic growth.

Resilient Cambodia

Figure 1 shows that the Cambodian economy has been remarkably resilient over the last three decades. In response to every global crisis (1997–1998 Asian Crisis, 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 2019–2020 COVID-19) and national-regional environmental crises (2011 and 2013 floods, and 2015–2019 droughts), economic growth was negatively impacted but recovered momentum quickly.

Figure 1: Economic Growth in Cambodia, 1976–2024

Source: World Bank (2026)

The Cambodia-related data on livelihoods and well-being are less easily available, but World Bank research shows that economic crises after the mid-1990s did not have deep or durable social impacts. The national measure shows that poverty in Cambodia declined from 40–50 percent in the mid-1990s to 33.8 percent in 2009, 26.3 percent in 2014, and 17.8 percent in 2019–2020.

The remainder of this blog shows that this economic resilience is an economic puzzle— Cambodia, by many measures, appears to be a vulnerable economy.

Sources of Vulnerability in Cambodia

a)      Dependence on Textiles

In 2025, Cambodia exported almost USD16 billion of Garments, Footwear, and Textiles (GFT). A survey by EuroCham shows that the combined share of GFT has remained stuck at around 70 percent of total merchandise exports in the decade to 2022. The GFT sector is directly and indirectly responsible for the livelihoods of up to three million Cambodians. Historically, the textile sector has been marked by low barriers to entry—cheap and easily available technology, a global network of buyers, and employment opportunities for relatively unskilled young women from rural areas. This extreme concentration in a globally competitive sector leaves Cambodia vulnerable to any loss of competitiveness, rising wages, or changing import sentiment in key markets.

b)     Dependence on the US (exports) and China (imports)

Cambodia’s market-based dependence has “gone backwards” in recent years. The combined share of Cambodian exports going to the US, UK, and EU increased from 61 percent in 2016 to 66 percent in 2021, the US in particular rising from 21 percent to 43 percent. This dependence is also marked by an extreme pattern of surplus with the US (over USD 12 billion) and deficit with China (over USD 16 billion), which leaves Cambodia very vulnerable to the tariff politics of US President Trump.

In August 2025, the US government imposed a 19 percent tariff on Cambodian imports. Subsequently, Cambodia has granted the US increased levels of market access related to manufactured goods, agricultural products, digital and other services, as well as reforms to state-owned enterprises, labour markets, and safety regulations in agriculture. The US government described these trade negotiations as a “tough trade deal that will benefit American workers, exporters, farmers, small businesses, and digital innovators.” A study by Milan Thomas of the ADB and Pirom Khiev of CDRI finds that the 19 percent tariff will have “a negligible impact on key economic variables,” but any return to the initial tariff of 36 percent that was announced in April 2025, then withdrawn (trade negotiations were a resilience mechanism for Cambodia), would have a much more serious impact on economic growth in Cambodia.

c)      Openness

The Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) has successfully promoted economic openness, giving local firms unprecedented opportunities to learn new technology and good management practices by trading with foreign multinationals, participating in international value chains, and facing competitive discipline.

The trade ratio is measured as the total of imports and exports as a share of GDP and provides a measure of how open Cambodia is to the global economy. The trade ratio (2024) was much higher in Cambodia (143 percent) than the average of either low-income (56 percent), middle-income (55 percent) or upper middle-income (47 percent) countries. In 2025, Cambodia received around USD5 billion in FDI, representing almost 10 percent of GDP—a huge number.

In the decade to 2024, Cambodia received more than USD45 billion of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This undoubted success in attracting FDI marked another degree of dependence. Chinese investors accounted for 50 percent of all approved FDI in 2025, far exceeding domestic investors (34 percent) and Vietnam (8.11 percent), with others including Singapore, Canada, the UK, Malaysia, and South Korea a long way behind.

The flip side of openness is that Cambodia can be deeply affected by political or economic changes in other countries, whether, for example, US tariffs or slower economic growth in China. This openness-cum-vulnerability is deepened by the dependence of Cambodia on imports of key inputs, including (in 2025) USD2.94 billion of refined petroleum and gas, USD2.44 billion of fibres for the GFT sector, USD1.95 billion of electrical equipment, and USD1.73 billion of machinery.

d)     Education and Skills Gap

Recent World Bank data shows that Cambodia’s overall labour force participation rate reached 82 percent and for women, 74 percent—about double the average prevailing in other lower middle-income countries. This reflects the one million manufacturing jobs Cambodia has created, mainly for young, unskilled women in the textile sector. CDRI research shows that real wages for low-skilled workers have risen rapidly over the past decade as the supply of cheap labour from the countryside or the household reaches its limits.

The share of the labour force with tertiary education (13 percent) is around one third that in Vietnam (35 percent), and the share of the workforce with completed secondary or college was only 17 percent in 2019–2020, unchanged since 2014.

With supplies of labour rapidly running out, the real danger is that continued economic growth will continue driving up wages, and without upskilling the labour force, this will lead to higher costs without gains in productivity. Cambodia is at risk of losing its competitiveness in labour-intensive sectors like textiles.

e)      Weather

Weather patterns are strongly influenced by the monsoon system, which creates distinct wet and dry seasons, which expose Cambodia to significant weather-related hazards.

Cambodia is ranked as the world’s fourth most flood-exposed country by the Inform Risk Index. Data from ADB indicated that, in 2011, floods affected around 350,274 families in Cambodia, which caused economic losses of approximately USD624 million. In 2023, the World Bank noted that Cambodia experienced an estimated 64 days per year when the maximum temperature exceeds 35°C, placing it in the top 23 countries with acute exposure to extreme heat. More than 30 percent of cropland experiences drought stress, leading to the risk of crop failures in maize and rice and resulting food insecurity.

f)       Climate Change

Climate change threatens to make these hazards both more frequent and more severe in the decades ahead. According to a recent ADB assessment, agriculture contributes around 24 percent of Cambodia’s GDP and employs approximately 37 percent of the country’s labour force, while rural communities also depend heavily on water resources, fisheries and forests.

The World Bank estimates that, under a high-impact climate scenario, crop yields in Cambodia could decline by around 30 percent, directly affecting food security and household livelihoods. The World Bank’s Cambodia Country Climate and Development Report estimates that climate change could reduce Cambodia’s GDP by up to 9.4 percent by 2050. This would include annual losses of physical and economic assets from flooding increasing from approximately USD0.5 billion in 2020 to between USD3.3 billion and USD10.6 billion by 2050.

Conclusion

This blog is the first in a new series launched by CDRI that examines major issues related to Resilient Cambodia. In this blog, we presented an economic puzzle: how has vulnerable Cambodia proved so remarkably economically resilient over the past three decades?

In subsequent blogs, we will look back and try to answer this question: was it related to Cambodia’s flexible labour market, to good macroeconomic policymaking and debt management by the RGC, or to external economic changes (rapid economic growth in China and the US)?

We will discuss the unprecedented series of shocks in 2025–2026. These include higher global energy prices, US tariffs, transport and supply chain disruptions resulting from conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, and trade and migration shocks resulting from conflict with Thailand. Will Cambodian resilience continue? Will Cambodia bounce back to rapid economic growth in 2027 and beyond?

We will also look ahead and think carefully about how Cambodia can further strengthen its economic resilience by upskilling the labour force, diversifying out of and upgrading within the textile sector, and protecting household livelihoods with cash transfers or universal health insurance.

We look beyond the economics and think about resilience in relation to climate change, water and the environment, to social services (education, health, and welfare), to migration and urbanisation, and to technology (AI and automation).

Look out for Blog Number Two – Strengthening Resilience in Cambodia: An Introduction to Resilience and Cambodia.

Authors

Ms Phuong Sokhim, Research Assistant, Centre for Natural Resources and Environment, CDRI
Prof Dr Matthew McCartney, Chief Economist, CDRI